Multifamily Recovery Perseveres

A More Balanced Market Creates Selective Investment Opportunities

After several years of elevated deliveries and market volatility, the multifamily sector continues to move through a significant reset. While recovery is taking longer than expected, the underlying drivers remain strong: fundamentals are stabilizing, renter demand is resilient, and investment activity is gradually improving.

Supply Pressures Ease, Demand Remains Robust

Encouragingly, market momentum continues to improve. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, quarterly deliveries declined more than 53% from their height, while annual inventory growth fell to its lowest level in ten quarters.¹ Although a full rebalancing will take time, the peak of the delivery cycle appears to be behind us.

Renter demand is a key source of resilience, rebounding in the first quarter of 2026 after a modest slowdown at the end of 2025. The persistent affordability gap between renting and owning continues to support demand, with the cost of homeownership exceeding renting by approximately $1,040 a month.¹

Lingering Uncertainty in Capital Markets

At the same time, capital markets are relatively muted, largely due to inflation concerns and elevated borrowing costs. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in Iran, have added further pressure. Together, these factors suggest financing costs are likely to stay elevated and somewhat volatile in the near term.

Despite this uncertainty, investment activity is improving as buyers and sellers adjust to the higher-rate environment and regain confidence. Multifamily debt originations increased 46% year-over-year in 1Q26.¹

Looking ahead, a significant wave of loan maturities is expected to create selective investment opportunities as owners refinance or sell assets. Rather than widespread distress, we expect attractive entry points to emerge through recapitalizations, restructurings, and selective asset sales.

Regional Performance Diverges

Performance has become increasingly market specific.

• Supply-constrained West Coast markets possess some of the strongest fundamentals in the country and continue to lead the nation.
• Select Sunbelt markets are gaining momentum as new supply is absorbed.
• Smaller Texas metros are posting positive rent growth while larger markets continue to work through elevated deliveries.

Although recovery is progressing at different rates across markets, healthy demand and slowing construction activity provide a solid foundation for long-term performance.

Post’s Outlook

In this environment, Post remains focused on disciplined capital deployment. While many investors remain on the sidelines, we are selectively acquiring high-quality assets where our affordable housing and tax-exempt strategies allow us to create value at acquisition.

Post’s portfolio has proven to be relatively resilient despite ongoing operational headwinds. We believe our long-term strategies are well positioned to benefit from persistent housing affordability challenges, favorable demographic trends, and long-term supply constraints.

¹ Newmark, 1Q 2026.